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South East Utd. vs Riverside Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 04:30

South East Utd.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Riverside

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.7%0-27.5%0-35.7%0-4+5.4%1 1-03.7%1-18.4%1-29.5%1-37.2%1-4+6.8%2 2-02.4%2-15.3%2-26.0%2-34.5%2-4+4.3%3 3-01.0%3-12.3%3-22.5%3-31.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.0% 27.0% 3.70 +11.0%

Draw 21.1% 21.1% 4.75 +0.1%

Away win 48.9% 63.7% 1.57 -23.2%

Over 2.5 63.6% 78.1% 1.28 -18.6%

Over 3.5 40.6% 58.1% 1.72 -30.2%

BTTS 62.1% 75.2% 1.33 -17.4%

Home O1.5 35.4% 46.1% 2.17 -23.2%

Away O1.5 67.8% 75.8% 1.32 -10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 8.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob62.1%

A 49% / xG 1.3-2.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 1–3 7.2%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South East Utd.1.3

Riverside2.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH EAST UTD. · PPG 1.50

RIVERSIDE · PPG 1.43

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.99 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

South East Utd. (H) 30.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +11.0%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +0.1%

Riverside (A) 48.9%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

South East Utd. face Riverside in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South East Utd. a 30% chance, the draw 21% and Riverside 49%, so Riverside are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for South East Utd. and 2.3 for Riverside (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South East Utd. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.43 for Riverside.

South East Utd. vs Riverside Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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