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Riverside vs Launceston City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 04:30

Riverside

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Launceston City

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.1%0-25.2%0-33.6%0-4+2.9%1 1-04.1%1-18.4%1-28.6%1-35.9%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.4%2-16.9%2-27.1%2-34.8%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.8%3-13.8%3-23.9%3-32.6%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.2%4+-22.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 31.3% 3.20 +14.6%

Draw 21.4% 23.1% 4.33 -4.4%

Away win 42.8% 57.1% 1.75 -25.1%

Over 2.5 67.0% 76.9% 1.30 -12.9%

Over 3.5 44.5% 55.9% 1.79 -20.3%

BTTS 64.5% 76.3% 1.31 -15.5%

Home O1.5 53.5% 48.3% 2.07 +10.8%

Away O1.5 49.8% 70.9% 1.41 -29.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.2%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob64.5%

A 43% / xG 1.6-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 1–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riverside1.6

Launceston City2.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RIVERSIDE · PPG 1.62

LAUNCESTON CITY · PPG 2.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Riverside (H) 35.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +14.6%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -4.4%

Launceston City (A) 42.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riverside face Launceston City in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riverside a 36% chance, the draw 21% and Launceston City 43%, so Launceston City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Riverside and 2.1 for Launceston City (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riverside are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 2.50 for Launceston City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.7%.

Riverside vs Launceston City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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