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Clarence Zebras vs Ulverstone Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 04:30

Clarence Zebras

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ulverstone

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.2%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.3%1-16.2%1-22.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.1%2-18.7%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.4%3-18.1%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-013.0%4+-111.1%4+-24.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% 78.1% 1.28 -16.3%

Draw 17.0% 19.0% 5.25 -6.5%

Away win 17.6% 15.4% 6.50 +8.6%

Over 2.5 67.0% 80.0% 1.25 -16.3%

Over 3.5 44.8% 62.1% 1.61 -27.9%

BTTS 55.4% 69.4% 1.44 -20.2%

Home O1.5 65.9% 85.5% 1.17 -22.9%

Away O1.5 21.1% 34.6% 2.89 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 8.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 65% / xG 2.8-0.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.1%

#2 3–0 9.4%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Clarence Zebras2.8

Ulverstone0.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CLARENCE ZEBRAS · PPG 1.25

ULVERSTONE · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.93 for Home, form 1.25 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Clarence Zebras (H) 65.4%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -16.3%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -6.5%

Ulverstone (A) 17.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Clarence Zebras face Ulverstone in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Clarence Zebras a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Ulverstone 18%, so Clarence Zebras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Clarence Zebras and 0.9 for Ulverstone (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Clarence Zebras are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.00 for Ulverstone.

Clarence Zebras vs Ulverstone Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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