Today / Australia - NPL Tasmania / Kingborough Lions vs Launceston City

Kingborough Lions vs Launceston City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Semi-finals ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 06:45

Kingborough Lions

PPG 2.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Launceston City

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 78.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.2%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.2%1-17.8%1-24.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.7%2-19.5%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.1%3-17.7%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-18.4%4+-24.6%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.5% 71.4% 1.40 -13.9%

Draw 18.4% 22.2% 4.50 -10.3%

Away win 20.1% 17.2% 5.80 +10.0%

Over 2.5 65.0% 73.5% 1.36 -11.6%

Over 3.5 43.5% 55.2% 1.81 -21.3%

BTTS 60.8% 69.4% 1.44 -12.4%

Home O1.5 65.1% 78.7% 1.27 -17.3%

Away O1.5 35.3% 35.7% 2.80 -1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.8%

H 62% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 3–0✓ 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kingborough Lions2.4

Launceston City1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KINGBOROUGH LIONS · PPG 2.78

LAUNCESTON CITY · PPG 1.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.34 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kingborough Lions (H) 61.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -13.9%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -10.3%

Launceston City (A) 20.1%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kingborough Lions face Launceston City in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kingborough Lions a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Launceston City 20%, so Kingborough Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Kingborough Lions and 1.1 for Launceston City (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kingborough Lions are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 1.78 for Launceston City. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Kingborough Lions vs Launceston City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Tasmania Predictions