Today / Australia - NPL Tasmania / South Hobart vs Launceston City

South Hobart vs Launceston City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 04:00

South Hobart

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Launceston City

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 70.6% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.1%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.6%1-15.9%1-23.8%1-31.6%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.5%2-18.4%2-25.4%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.9%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-111.2%4+-27.2%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.7% 82.0% 1.22 -23.5%

Draw 16.7% 17.4% 5.75 -2.4%

Away win 20.7% 12.5% 8.00 +39.4%

Over 2.5 67.0% 75.2% 1.33 -10.9%

Over 3.5 47.4% 56.2% 1.78 -15.6%

BTTS 63.5% 59.9% 1.67 +6.0%

Home O1.5 70.6% 83.3% 1.20 -15.3%

Away O1.5 37.1% 24.7% 4.05 +50.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 8.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 63% / xG 2.8-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Hobart2.8

Launceston City1.3

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH HOBART · PPG 3.00

LAUNCESTON CITY · PPG 2.29

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.54 for Home, form 3.00 vs 2.29 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

South Hobart (H) 62.7%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -23.5%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -2.4%

Launceston City (A) 20.7%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +39.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Hobart face Launceston City in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Hobart a 63% chance, the draw 17% and Launceston City 21%, so South Hobart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for South Hobart and 1.3 for Launceston City (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Hobart are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.29 for Launceston City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +64.8%.

South Hobart vs Launceston City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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