Today / Australia - NPL Tasmania / Kingborough Lions vs Clarence Zebras

Kingborough Lions vs Clarence Zebras Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 04:30

Kingborough Lions

PPG 2.75 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Clarence Zebras

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.2%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.7%1-19.1%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-17.1%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-16.4%4+-23.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 71.4% 1.40 -20.9%

Draw 22.3% 20.8% 4.80 +4.2%

Away win 21.1% 19.6% 5.10 +4.6%

Over 2.5 63.4% 78.1% 1.28 -18.9%

Over 3.5 39.5% 64.5% 1.55 -38.8%

BTTS 54.6% 75.2% 1.33 -27.4%

Home O1.5 62.1% 84.0% 1.19 -26.1%

Away O1.5 27.7% 43.5% 2.30 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 1–1 9.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kingborough Lions2.2

Clarence Zebras0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KINGBOROUGH LIONS · PPG 2.75

CLARENCE ZEBRAS · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kingborough Lions (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -20.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +4.2%

Clarence Zebras (A) 21.1%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kingborough Lions face Clarence Zebras in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kingborough Lions a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Clarence Zebras 21%, so Kingborough Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Kingborough Lions and 0.9 for Clarence Zebras (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kingborough Lions are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Clarence Zebras. The best value bet our model finds is D/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Kingborough Lions vs Clarence Zebras Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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