Today / Australia - NPL Tasmania / Glenorchy Knights vs Launceston United

Glenorchy Knights vs Launceston United Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 04:30

Glenorchy Knights

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Launceston United

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.8%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.4%1-18.6%1-24.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.2%3-17.4%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-17.2%4+-23.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 87.0% 1.15 -35.0%

Draw 22.3% 15.2% 6.60 +28.3%

Away win 21.1% 10.6% 9.40 +59.0%

Over 2.5 63.7% 87.7% 1.14 -27.4%

Over 3.5 41.3% 74.6% 1.34 -44.7%

BTTS 60.9% 73.5% 1.36 -17.2%

Home O1.5 62.4% 93.5% 1.07 -33.2%

Away O1.5 32.1% 37.3% 2.68 -14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.9%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Glenorchy Knights2.3

Launceston United1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GLENORCHY KNIGHTS · PPG 1.00

LAUNCESTON UNITED · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Glenorchy Knights (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -35.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +28.3%

Launceston United (A) 21.1%

ODDS 9.40 · IMPLIED 10.6% EV +59.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Glenorchy Knights face Launceston United in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Glenorchy Knights a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Launceston United 21%, so Glenorchy Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Glenorchy Knights and 1.0 for Launceston United (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Glenorchy Knights are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.25 for Launceston United. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +32.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Glenorchy Knights vs Launceston United Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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