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Devonport City vs Kingborough Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 04:30

Devonport City

PPG 2.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kingborough Lions

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.5%0-24.4%0-32.4%0-4+1.4%1 1-06.1%1-19.7%1-27.8%1-34.2%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.6%2-26.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.2%3-15.1%3-24.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.3%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 38.2% 2.62 +16.6%

Draw 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

Away win 33.0% 48.8% 2.05 -32.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 71.4% 1.40 -10.5%

Over 3.5 42.4% 52.4% 1.91 -19.0%

BTTS 63.3% 75.8% 1.32 -16.4%

Home O1.5 49.2% 54.3% 1.84 -9.5%

Away O1.5 47.5% 61.7% 1.62 -23.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.3%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Devonport City1.8

Kingborough Lions1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEVONPORT CITY · PPG 2.44

KINGBOROUGH LIONS · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Devonport City (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +16.6%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.0%

Kingborough Lions (A) 33.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -32.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Devonport City face Kingborough Lions in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Devonport City a 45% chance, the draw 23% and Kingborough Lions 33%, so Devonport City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Devonport City and 1.6 for Kingborough Lions (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Devonport City are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 2.00 for Kingborough Lions. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.0%.

Devonport City vs Kingborough Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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