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Ulverstone vs South East Utd. Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 04:30

Ulverstone

PPG 0.50 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

South East Utd.

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.3%0-25.7%0-34.1%0-4+3.7%1 1-03.8%1-18.2%1-28.9%1-36.4%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.9%2-16.3%2-26.8%2-34.9%2-4+4.4%3 3-01.5%3-13.3%3-23.5%3-32.5%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.8%4+-21.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 23.8% 4.20 +32.7%

Draw 22.8% 23.1% 4.33 -0.8%

Away win 45.6% 65.4% 1.53 -30.2%

Over 2.5 64.7% 80.0% 1.25 -19.1%

Over 3.5 43.0% 64.5% 1.55 -33.4%

BTTS 64.3% 76.9% 1.30 -16.4%

Home O1.5 45.4% 49.0% 2.04 -7.4%

Away O1.5 54.7% 78.1% 1.28 -30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob64.3%

A 46% / xG 1.5-2.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulverstone1.5

South East Utd.2.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ULVERSTONE · PPG 0.50

SOUTH EAST UTD. · PPG 0.38

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.61 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ulverstone (H) 31.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +32.7%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -0.8%

South East Utd. (A) 45.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -30.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulverstone face South East Utd. in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulverstone a 32% chance, the draw 23% and South East Utd. 46%, so South East Utd. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ulverstone and 2.2 for South East Utd. (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulverstone are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.38 for South East Utd.. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +26.6%. This match finished 3-4.

Ulverstone vs South East Utd. Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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