Today / Australia - NPL Tasmania / Glenorchy Knights vs Devonport City

Glenorchy Knights vs Devonport City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 06:45

Glenorchy Knights

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Devonport City

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 69.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+12.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-16.3%0-28.8%0-38.1%0-4+11.1%1 1-02.3%1-16.4%1-28.8%1-38.2%1-4+11.1%2 2-01.2%2-13.2%2-24.4%2-34.1%2-4+5.6%3 3-00.4%3-11.1%3-21.5%3-31.4%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% 26.3% 3.80 -29.9%

Draw 17.1% 23.1% 4.33 -15.6%

Away win 69.7% 61.7% 1.62 +12.9%

Over 2.5 67.0% 75.2% 1.33 -10.9%

Over 3.5 44.8% 56.2% 1.78 -20.3%

BTTS 60.5% 75.2% 1.33 -19.5%

Home O1.5 32.6% 45.7% 2.19 -28.6%

Away O1.5 67.8% 73.0% 1.37 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 8.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob60.5%

A 70% / xG 1.0-2.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.8%

#2 0–2 8.8%

#3 1–3 8.2%

#4 0–3 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Glenorchy Knights1.0

Devonport City2.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GLENORCHY KNIGHTS · PPG 1.14

DEVONPORT CITY · PPG 2.25

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.77 for Away, form 1.14 vs 2.25

Win probability 1X2

Glenorchy Knights (H) 13.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -29.9%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -15.6%

Devonport City (A) 69.7%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Glenorchy Knights face Devonport City in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Glenorchy Knights a 13% chance, the draw 17% and Devonport City 70%, so Devonport City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Glenorchy Knights and 2.8 for Devonport City (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Glenorchy Knights are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 2.25 for Devonport City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.8%.

Glenorchy Knights vs Devonport City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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