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South Hobart vs Devonport City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Semi-finals ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 04:00

South Hobart

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Devonport City

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.6%0-21.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-02.5%1-14.6%1-24.3%1-32.6%1-4+1.9%2 2-03.6%2-16.7%2-26.2%2-33.8%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.5%3-16.5%3-26.0%3-33.7%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-19.7%4+-29.0%4+-35.5%4+-4+3.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 62.5% 1.60 -15.8%

Draw 19.3% 25.0% 4.00 -13.7%

Away win 28.1% 25.0% 4.00 +7.4%

Over 2.5 76.0% 73.5% 1.36 +3.4%

Over 3.5 55.5% 54.1% 1.85 +2.7%

BTTS 69.1% 73.5% 1.36 -6.0%

Home O1.5 78.4% 71.4% 1.40 +9.8%

Away O1.5 55.2% 43.7% 2.29 +26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.1%

H 53% / xG 2.9-1.9 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.2%

#2 2–1 6.7%

#3 3–1 6.5%

#4 1–1 4.6%

#5 3–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Hobart2.9

Devonport City1.9

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.0% · O3.5 PROB 55.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH HOBART · PPG 3.00

DEVONPORT CITY · PPG 2.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

South Hobart (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -15.8%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -13.7%

Devonport City (A) 28.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Hobart face Devonport City in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Hobart a 53% chance, the draw 19% and Devonport City 28%, so South Hobart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for South Hobart and 1.9 for Devonport City (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Hobart are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.33 for Devonport City. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 0-3.

South Hobart vs Devonport City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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