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Devonport City vs Launceston City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 04:30

Devonport City

PPG 2.38 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Launceston City

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.3%0-22.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.2%1-17.7%1-25.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.1%2-18.9%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.7%3-16.9%3-25.1%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-16.9%4+-25.1%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 66.7% 1.50 -19.6%

Draw 22.3% 21.7% 4.60 +1.6%

Away win 24.1% 24.4% 4.10 -0.7%

Over 2.5 67.2% 80.0% 1.25 -16.0%

Over 3.5 44.0% 62.5% 1.60 -29.6%

BTTS 64.3% 75.2% 1.33 -14.5%

Home O1.5 62.4% 79.4% 1.26 -21.4%

Away O1.5 44.8% 47.4% 2.11 -5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.3%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 3–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Devonport City2.3

Launceston City1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEVONPORT CITY · PPG 2.38

LAUNCESTON CITY · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Devonport City (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -19.6%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +1.6%

Launceston City (A) 24.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Devonport City face Launceston City in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Devonport City a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Launceston City 24%, so Devonport City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Devonport City and 1.5 for Launceston City (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Devonport City are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 2.00 for Launceston City. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 6-0.

Devonport City vs Launceston City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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