Leagues / AUSTRALIA / Queensland NPL
Queensland NPL
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 44 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
59.1%
1X2
26/44
77.3%
O/U 2.5
34/44
72.7%
BTTS
32/44
36.4%
Exact score
16/44
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
44
Settled
75.0%
Hit rate
33/44
1.30
Avg odds
-1.9%
ROI
-0.8u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=28 78.6% HIT · AVG 1.30 · +2.7% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=8 62.5% HIT · AVG 1.29 · -18.5% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.33 · -13.5% ROI
BTTS · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.35 · +35.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+36.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
11
Bets
64%
Hit
-20.9%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
11
Bets
64%
Hit
-13.6%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
20
Bets
85%
Hit
+11.3%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 15 PICKS · 10 HIT · 5 MISS
19 JUL Olympic FC vs Brisbane Roar B Over 2.5 -16% 3–1 HIT18 JUL Gold C. Utd vs Q. Lions AO1.5 0–1 MISS18 JUL Gold C. Knights vs Wynnum Wolves Over 2.5 -16% 1–2 HIT18 JUL Moreton City E. vs Peninsula Over 2.5 -16% 2–2 HIT18 JUL Rochedale vs Brisbane City Over 2.5 -10% 2–3 HIT18 JUL Eastern Suburbs vs Magic United Over 2.5 -18% 1–4 HIT12 JUL Gold C. Utd vs Olympic FC Over 2.5 -13% 3–0 HIT12 JUL Gold C. Knights vs Brisbane City HO1.5 0–0 MISS12 JUL Q. Lions vs Eastern Suburbs Over 2.5 -20% 1–0 MISS11 JUL Moreton City E. vs Magic United Over 2.5 -4% 4–3 HIT10 JUL Brisbane Roar B vs Rochedale Over 2.5 -5% 4–1 HIT10 JUL Peninsula vs Wynnum Wolves Over 2.5 -14% 0–0 MISS7 JUL Gold C. Knights vs Q. Lions Over 2.5 -4% 2–1 HIT5 JUL Gold C. Utd vs Magic United Over 2.5 -15% 1–3 HIT5 JUL Brisbane City vs Brisbane Roar B Over 2.5 -8% 1–1 MISS