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WDSC Wolves vs Magic United Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 09:30

WDSC Wolves

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Magic United

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.8%0-22.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.9%1-17.0%1-25.0%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.2%2-18.8%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.2%3-17.3%3-25.2%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-18.4%4+-26.0%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 60.6% 1.65 -11.4%

Draw 21.3% 23.8% 4.20 -6.3%

Away win 25.0% 26.0% 3.85 -2.3%

Over 2.5 67.4% 80.0% 1.25 -15.8%

Over 3.5 47.2% 58.8% 1.70 -19.8%

BTTS 63.3% 76.9% 1.30 -17.7%

Home O1.5 63.4% 74.1% 1.35 -14.4%

Away O1.5 42.6% 50.0% 2.00 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.3%

H 54% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.2%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

WDSC Wolves2.5

Magic United1.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WDSC WOLVES · PPG 1.50

MAGIC UNITED · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

WDSC Wolves (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -11.4%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.3%

Magic United (A) 25.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

WDSC Wolves face Magic United in Australia - NPL Queensland on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives WDSC Wolves a 54% chance, the draw 21% and Magic United 25%, so WDSC Wolves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for WDSC Wolves and 1.4 for Magic United (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, WDSC Wolves are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Magic United.

WDSC Wolves vs Magic United Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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