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Lions vs Brisbane Roar II Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 08:30

Lions

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brisbane Roar II

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.0%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.8%1-13.6%1-21.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.9%2-16.5%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-17.8%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-019.1%4+-117.9%4+-28.4%4+-32.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.4% 84.7% 1.18 -12.2%

Draw 16.5% 16.1% 6.20 +1.4%

Away win 9.1% 9.1% 11.00 +0.1%

Over 2.5 71.8% 80.0% 1.25 -10.3%

Over 3.5 49.1% 60.6% 1.65 -19.0%

BTTS 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Home O1.5 78.3% 87.0% 1.15 -10.0%

Away O1.5 27.7% 28.6% 3.50 -1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob59.7%

H 74% / xG 3.6-0.9 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.3%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 4–0 7.5%

#4 4–1 7.0%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lions3.6

Brisbane Roar II0.9

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LIONS · PPG 2.60

BRISBANE ROAR II · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.67 for Home, form 2.60 vs 0.40 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lions (H) 74.4%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -12.2%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +1.4%

Brisbane Roar II (A) 9.1%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lions face Brisbane Roar II in Australia - NPL Queensland on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lions a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Brisbane Roar II 9%, so Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Lions and 0.9 for Brisbane Roar II (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lions are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.40 for Brisbane Roar II.

Lions vs Brisbane Roar II Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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