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Magic United vs Rochedale Rovers Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 08:00

Magic United

PPG 0.60 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Rochedale Rovers

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.2% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.2%0-23.5%0-32.5%0-4+2.2%1 1-03.1%1-16.6%1-27.1%1-35.1%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.1%2-16.8%2-27.3%2-35.2%2-4+4.7%3 3-02.1%3-14.6%3-25.0%3-33.6%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.8%4+-24.1%4+-33.0%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 33.3% 3.00 +17.0%

Draw 21.6% 26.3% 3.80 -10.8%

Away win 39.4% 50.0% 2.00 -21.2%

Over 2.5 71.2% 74.1% 1.35 -3.9%

Over 3.5 47.5% 54.1% 1.85 -12.1%

BTTS 69.6% 76.9% 1.30 -9.5%

Home O1.5 60.2% 54.1% 1.85 +11.4%

Away O1.5 54.7% 65.4% 1.53 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob69.6%

A 39% / xG 2.1-2.2 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.6%

#2 2–2 7.3%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–1✓ 6.8%

#5 2–3 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magic United2.1

Rochedale Rovers2.2

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.2% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGIC UNITED · PPG 0.60

ROCHEDALE ROVERS · PPG 0.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Magic United (H) 39.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +17.0%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.8%

Rochedale Rovers (A) 39.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magic United face Rochedale Rovers in Australia - NPL Queensland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magic United a 39% chance, the draw 22% and Rochedale Rovers 39%, so Rochedale Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Magic United and 2.2 for Rochedale Rovers (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magic United are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.33 for Rochedale Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Magic United vs Rochedale Rovers Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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