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Moreton City Excelsior vs Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 09:30

Moreton City Excelsior

PPG 2.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lions

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 67.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-14.1%0-24.3%0-33.1%0-4+2.7%1 1-03.5%1-17.5%1-27.9%1-35.6%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.2%2-16.8%2-27.2%2-35.1%2-4+4.5%3 3-02.0%3-14.2%3-24.4%3-33.1%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.9%4+-23.1%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 43.5% 2.30 -18.8%

Draw 22.5% 26.0% 3.85 -8.0%

Away win 42.2% 40.8% 2.45 +3.4%

Over 2.5 67.4% 74.1% 1.35 -9.0%

Over 3.5 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

BTTS 67.7% 76.9% 1.30 -12.0%

Home O1.5 52.4% 60.6% 1.65 -13.5%

Away O1.5 56.5% 58.8% 1.70 -4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob67.7%

A 42% / xG 1.8-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moreton City Excelsior1.8

Lions2.1

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MORETON CITY EXCELSIOR · PPG 2.30

LIONS · PPG 2.10

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Moreton City Excelsior (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -18.8%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -8.0%

Lions (A) 42.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moreton City Excelsior face Lions in Australia - NPL Queensland on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moreton City Excelsior a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Lions 42%, so Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Moreton City Excelsior and 2.1 for Lions (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moreton City Excelsior are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 2.10 for Lions. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.5%.

Moreton City Excelsior vs Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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