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Olympic vs Rochedale Rovers Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 09:30

Olympic

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rochedale Rovers

PPG 0.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.0%0-22.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.4%1-17.3%1-25.0%1-32.2%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.7%2-19.0%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.5%3-17.4%3-25.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-18.2%4+-25.6%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 43.5% 2.30 +27.2%

Draw 21.7% 27.0% 3.70 -11.8%

Away win 23.0% 39.2% 2.55 -24.8%

Over 2.5 67.3% 71.4% 1.40 -5.8%

Over 3.5 43.3% 51.3% 1.95 -15.6%

BTTS 63.3% 75.2% 1.33 -15.8%

Home O1.5 63.3% 58.8% 1.70 +7.6%

Away O1.5 42.6% 55.6% 1.80 -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.3%

H 55% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olympic2.5

Rochedale Rovers1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OLYMPIC · PPG 1.50

ROCHEDALE ROVERS · PPG 0.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Olympic (H) 55.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +27.2%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.8%

Rochedale Rovers (A) 23.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olympic face Rochedale Rovers in Australia - NPL Queensland on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olympic a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Rochedale Rovers 23%, so Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Olympic and 1.4 for Rochedale Rovers (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olympic are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.30 for Rochedale Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.1%.

Olympic vs Rochedale Rovers Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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