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Gold Coast United vs Eastern Suburbs Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 09:30

Gold Coast United

PPG 0.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Eastern Suburbs

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-110.5%0-27.9%0-34.0%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.0%1-112.1%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.6%2-17.0%2-25.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.8%3-12.7%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 39.2% 2.55 -5.1%

Draw 25.7% 27.0% 3.70 -2.9%

Away win 37.1% 43.5% 2.30 -14.7%

Over 2.5 53.4% 65.4% 1.53 -18.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 42.6% 2.35 -25.7%

BTTS 53.4% 69.4% 1.44 -23.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 51.3% 1.95 -40.3%

Away O1.5 47.3% 54.1% 1.85 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.4%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.9%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold Coast United1.2

Eastern Suburbs1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD COAST UNITED · PPG 0.90

EASTERN SUBURBS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gold Coast United (H) 37.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -5.1%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.9%

Eastern Suburbs (A) 37.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold Coast United face Eastern Suburbs in Australia - NPL Queensland on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold Coast United a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Eastern Suburbs 37%, so Gold Coast United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gold Coast United and 1.5 for Eastern Suburbs (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold Coast United are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.50 for Eastern Suburbs. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.2%.

Gold Coast United vs Eastern Suburbs Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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