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Peninsula Power vs Brisbane City Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 09:30

Peninsula Power

PPG 2.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brisbane City

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.6%0-22.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.5%1-16.7%1-25.0%1-32.5%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.7%2-18.5%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.8%3-17.2%3-25.4%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-18.5%4+-26.3%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 60.6% 1.65 -8.8%

Draw 21.3% 24.4% 4.10 -7.6%

Away win 23.4% 25.0% 4.00 -3.8%

Over 2.5 67.4% 74.1% 1.35 -9.0%

Over 3.5 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

BTTS 63.3% 74.1% 1.35 -14.5%

Home O1.5 63.4% 71.4% 1.40 -11.2%

Away O1.5 47.3% 45.5% 2.20 +4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.3%

H 55% / xG 2.5-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 1–1 6.7%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Peninsula Power2.5

Brisbane City1.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PENINSULA POWER · PPG 2.30

BRISBANE CITY · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Peninsula Power (H) 55.3%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -8.8%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.6%

Brisbane City (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Peninsula Power face Brisbane City in Australia - NPL Queensland on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peninsula Power a 55% chance, the draw 21% and Brisbane City 23%, so Peninsula Power are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Peninsula Power and 1.5 for Brisbane City (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peninsula Power are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 2.00 for Brisbane City. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +4.1%.

Peninsula Power vs Brisbane City Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Queensland Predictions