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Brisbane Roar II vs Moreton City Excelsior Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 04:30

Brisbane Roar II

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Moreton City Excelsior

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-14.6%0-26.2%0-35.5%0-4+7.0%1 1-02.4%1-16.4%1-28.6%1-37.6%1-4+9.7%2 2-01.7%2-14.4%2-25.9%2-35.3%2-4+6.7%3 3-00.8%3-12.1%3-22.7%3-32.4%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.0%4+-21.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% 20.0% 5.00 +9.3%

Draw 21.2% 20.0% 5.00 +3.6%

Away win 55.7% 69.4% 1.44 -19.8%

Over 2.5 67.0% 80.0% 1.25 -16.3%

Over 3.5 47.4% 60.6% 1.65 -21.8%

BTTS 63.5% 75.2% 1.33 -15.5%

Home O1.5 40.2% 44.4% 2.25 -9.6%

Away O1.5 67.8% 80.0% 1.25 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob63.5%

A 56% / xG 1.4-2.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.6%

#2 1–3 7.6%

#3 1–1 6.4%

#4 0–2 6.2%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brisbane Roar II1.4

Moreton City Excelsior2.7

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BRISBANE ROAR II · PPG 1.00

MORETON CITY EXCELSIOR · PPG 1.44

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.28 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Brisbane Roar II (H) 23.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +9.3%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.6%

Moreton City Excelsior (A) 55.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brisbane Roar II face Moreton City Excelsior in Australia - NPL Queensland on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brisbane Roar II a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Moreton City Excelsior 56%, so Moreton City Excelsior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Brisbane Roar II and 2.7 for Moreton City Excelsior (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brisbane Roar II are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.44 for Moreton City Excelsior. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.6%.

Brisbane Roar II vs Moreton City Excelsior Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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