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Lions vs Peninsula Power Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Quarter-finals ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 07:00

Lions

PPG 2.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Peninsula Power

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.1%0-22.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.1%1-18.7%1-26.2%1-33.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.6%3-16.5%3-24.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.7%4+-24.1%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Draw 22.1% 26.3% 3.80 -9.6%

Away win 25.3% 28.6% 3.50 -6.9%

Over 2.5 64.4% 67.6% 1.48 -4.7%

Over 3.5 43.2% 45.5% 2.20 -5.0%

BTTS 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Home O1.5 59.6% 62.5% 1.60 -4.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 43.5% 2.30 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 3–1 6.5%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lions2.1

Peninsula Power1.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LIONS · PPG 2.64

PENINSULA POWER · PPG 1.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lions (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -5.3%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.6%

Peninsula Power (A) 25.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lions face Peninsula Power in Australia - NPL Queensland on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lions a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Peninsula Power 25%, so Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Lions and 1.4 for Peninsula Power (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lions are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 1.91 for Peninsula Power. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.9%. This match finished 4-1.

Lions vs Peninsula Power Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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