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Brisbane Roar II vs Gold Coast Knights Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 09:30

Brisbane Roar II

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gold Coast Knights

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-15.4%0-26.1%0-34.7%0-4+4.5%1 1-03.5%1-17.9%1-29.0%1-36.8%1-4+6.6%2 2-02.5%2-15.8%2-26.6%2-35.0%2-4+4.9%3 3-01.2%3-12.8%3-23.2%3-32.4%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.4%4+-21.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 29.4% 3.40 +17.3%

Draw 21.7% 25.3% 3.95 -8.6%

Away win 43.8% 55.6% 1.80 -21.2%

Over 2.5 67.3% 75.2% 1.33 -10.5%

Over 3.5 43.0% 55.6% 1.80 -22.6%

BTTS 63.3% 76.9% 1.30 -17.7%

Home O1.5 45.1% 51.3% 1.95 -12.1%

Away O1.5 64.9% 69.4% 1.44 -6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob63.3%

A 44% / xG 1.5-2.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 1–3 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brisbane Roar II1.5

Gold Coast Knights2.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BRISBANE ROAR II · PPG 1.20

GOLD COAST KNIGHTS · PPG 1.30

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.81 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Brisbane Roar II (H) 34.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +17.3%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.6%

Gold Coast Knights (A) 43.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brisbane Roar II face Gold Coast Knights in Australia - NPL Queensland on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brisbane Roar II a 35% chance, the draw 22% and Gold Coast Knights 44%, so Gold Coast Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Brisbane Roar II and 2.3 for Gold Coast Knights (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brisbane Roar II are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.30 for Gold Coast Knights. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.5%.

Brisbane Roar II vs Gold Coast Knights Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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