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Olympic vs Moreton City Excelsior Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 08:00

Olympic

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Moreton City Excelsior

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.8%0-25.5%0-33.5%0-4+2.6%1 1-04.8%1-19.1%1-28.8%1-35.6%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.8%2-17.2%2-27.0%2-34.5%2-4+3.3%3 3-02.0%3-13.8%3-23.7%3-32.4%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.2%4+-22.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 26.0% 3.85 +37.4%

Draw 22.1% 23.8% 4.20 -4.3%

Away win 42.2% 60.6% 1.65 -30.4%

Over 2.5 63.8% 76.9% 1.30 -17.1%

Over 3.5 43.0% 55.6% 1.80 -22.6%

BTTS 64.3% 75.2% 1.33 -14.5%

Home O1.5 47.5% 47.6% 2.10 -0.3%

Away O1.5 54.7% 72.5% 1.38 -24.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob64.3%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2✓ 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olympic1.6

Moreton City Excelsior1.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OLYMPIC · PPG 1.67

MORETON CITY EXCELSIOR · PPG 1.30

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olympic (H) 35.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +37.4%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.3%

Moreton City Excelsior (A) 42.2%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -30.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olympic face Moreton City Excelsior in Australia - NPL Queensland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olympic a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Moreton City Excelsior 42%, so Moreton City Excelsior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Olympic and 1.9 for Moreton City Excelsior (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olympic are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.30 for Moreton City Excelsior. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Olympic vs Moreton City Excelsior Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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