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Brisbane City vs Gold Coast United Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 08:00

Brisbane City

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gold Coast United

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.8%0-23.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.2%1-18.2%1-26.4%1-33.4%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-04.0%3-16.3%3-24.9%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.6%4+-24.4%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 58.8% 1.70 -17.0%

Draw 22.1% 24.4% 4.10 -5.6%

Away win 29.1% 26.7% 3.75 +5.5%

Over 2.5 65.3% 72.5% 1.38 -9.9%

Over 3.5 44.0% 51.3% 1.95 -14.2%

BTTS 64.3% 72.5% 1.38 -11.3%

Home O1.5 61.7% 69.0% 1.45 -10.5%

Away O1.5 48.2% 45.5% 2.20 +6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.3%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brisbane City2.1

Gold Coast United1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BRISBANE CITY · PPG 1.00

GOLD COAST UNITED · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brisbane City (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -17.0%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.6%

Gold Coast United (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brisbane City face Gold Coast United in Australia - NPL Queensland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brisbane City a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Gold Coast United 29%, so Brisbane City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Brisbane City and 1.6 for Gold Coast United (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brisbane City are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Gold Coast United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Brisbane City vs Gold Coast United Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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