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Gold Coast Knights vs Peninsula Power Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 08:00

Gold Coast Knights

PPG 2.10 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Peninsula Power

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-17.2%0-25.9%0-33.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.5%1-110.7%1-28.8%1-34.8%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.0%2-26.5%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.4%3-13.9%3-23.2%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 35.7% 2.80 +0.5%

Draw 24.5% 27.0% 3.70 -5.6%

Away win 39.5% 47.6% 2.10 -17.1%

Over 2.5 60.4% 67.6% 1.48 -10.6%

Over 3.5 36.8% 45.5% 2.20 -19.0%

BTTS 61.8% 70.4% 1.42 -12.2%

Home O1.5 45.4% 48.8% 2.05 -6.9%

Away O1.5 48.2% 57.8% 1.73 -16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.8%

A 40% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2✓ 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold Coast Knights1.5

Peninsula Power1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD COAST KNIGHTS · PPG 2.10

PENINSULA POWER · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gold Coast Knights (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +0.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.6%

Peninsula Power (A) 39.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold Coast Knights face Peninsula Power in Australia - NPL Queensland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold Coast Knights a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Peninsula Power 40%, so Peninsula Power are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gold Coast Knights and 1.6 for Peninsula Power (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold Coast Knights are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 2.00 for Peninsula Power. This match finished 2-2.

Gold Coast Knights vs Peninsula Power Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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