Leagues / AUSTRALIA / NPL Tasmania
NPL Tasmania
▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE
MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 58 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
75.9%
1X2
44/58
70.7%
O/U 2.5
41/58
58.6%
BTTS
34/58
34.5%
Exact score
20/58
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
11
Settled
81.8%
Hit rate
9/11
1.32
Avg odds
+12.9%
ROI
+1.4u
Picks by market
AWAY O1.5 · N=5 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.26 · +5.2% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.13 · -39.5% ROI
HOME WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.40 · +40.0% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.33 · +33.0% ROI
OVER 3.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.60 · +60.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.62 · +62.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
3
Bets
100%
Hit
+57.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
4
Bets
75%
Hit
-16.8%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+52.5%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-33.5%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 13 PICKS · 10 HIT · 3 MISS
23 AUG South Hobart vs Devonport City BTTS -6% 0–3 MISS22 AUG Kingborough Lions vs Launceston City HO1.5 3–0 HIT15 AUG Devonport City vs Kingborough Lions Over 2.5 -11% 2–1 HIT8 AUG South Hobart vs Riverside HO1.5 5–2 HIT8 AUG Ulverstone vs South East Utd. Over 2.5 -19% 3–4 HIT8 AUG Devonport City vs Launceston City Over 2.5 -16% 6–0 HIT8 AUG Glenorchy Knights vs Launceston United Over 2.5 -27% 2–1 HIT8 AUG Kingborough Lions vs Clarence Zebras Over 2.5 -19% 3–1 HIT2 AUG Clarence Zebras vs Ulverstone Over 2.5 -9% 1–0 MISS1 AUG South Hobart vs Launceston City HO1.5 3–1 HIT1 AUG Kingborough Lions vs Launceston United HO1.5 2–0 HIT1 AUG South East Utd. vs Riverside AO1.5 3–1 MISS1 AUG Glenorchy Knights vs Devonport City Away +13% 1–2 HITJuly 2026 // 2 PICKS · 1 HIT · 1 MISS
25 JUL Riverside vs Launceston City Over 2.5 -13% 0–0 MISS25 JUL Launceston United vs Devonport City AO1.5 0–6 HIT