Leagues / AUSTRALIA / NPL Queensland
NPL Queensland
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 64 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
54.7%
1X2
35/64
71.9%
O/U 2.5
46/64
67.2%
BTTS
43/64
35.9%
Exact score
23/64
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
12
Settled
66.7%
Hit rate
8/12
1.31
Avg odds
-14.0%
ROI
-1.7u
Picks by market
AWAY O1.5 · N=5 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.29 · +2.4% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=4 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.27 · -4.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.38 · -54.7% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+42.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
5
Bets
60%
Hit
-25.4%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
4
Bets
50%
Hit
-30.5%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+19.5%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 15 PICKS · 10 HIT · 5 MISS
30 AUG Lions vs Peninsula Power BTTS -9% 4–1 HIT14 AUG WDSC Wolves vs Magic United Over 2.5 -16% 0–3 HIT14 AUG Olympic vs Rochedale Rovers Over 2.5 -8% 1–2 HIT14 AUG Gold Coast United vs Eastern Suburbs Over 2.5 -18% 2–0 MISS14 AUG Peninsula Power vs Brisbane City Over 2.5 -9% 2–2 HIT14 AUG Brisbane Roar II vs Gold Coast Knights Over 2.5 -9% 1–2 HIT14 AUG Moreton City Excelsior vs Lions BTTS -12% 0–2 MISS8 AUG Olympic vs Moreton City Excelsior Over 2.5 -17% 1–2 HIT8 AUG Magic United vs Rochedale Rovers Over 2.5 -4% 2–1 HIT8 AUG Gold Coast Knights vs Peninsula Power BTTS -12% 2–2 HIT8 AUG Brisbane City vs Gold Coast United Over 2.5 -10% 2–0 MISS8 AUG Eastern Suburbs vs WDSC Wolves Over 2.5 -11% 0–0 MISS7 AUG Lions vs Brisbane Roar II HO1.5 4–2 HIT2 AUG Brisbane Roar II vs Moreton City Excelsior AO1.5 2–0 MISS2 AUG Magic United vs Olympic Over 2.5 -5% 0–3 HIT