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Gandzasar vs Shirak Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:00

Gandzasar

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shirak

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+22.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.2%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.5%1-110.1%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.1%3-16.5%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-15.0%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 54.6% 1.83 -1.9%

Draw 22.7% 32.3% 3.10 -17.8%

Away win 23.7% 25.6% 3.90 -4.5%

Over 2.5 61.2% 50.0% 2.00 +22.4%

Over 3.5 38.6% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 33.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.3%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gandzasar2.0

Shirak1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GANDZASAR · PPG 1.33

SHIRAK · PPG 0.76

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gandzasar (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -1.9%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.8%

Shirak (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gandzasar face Shirak in Armenia - Premier League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gandzasar a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Shirak 24%, so Gandzasar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Gandzasar and 1.1 for Shirak (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gandzasar are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.76 for Shirak. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.4%.

Gandzasar vs Shirak Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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