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FC Urartu vs Alashkert Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 16:00

FC Urartu

PPG 1.66 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Alashkert

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-19.9%0-26.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.3%1-112.8%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.6%2-18.2%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.8%3-13.5%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 34.5% 2.90 +7.6%

Draw 27.2% 30.8% 3.25 -7.0%

Away win 35.7% 46.5% 2.15 -23.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 48.1% 2.08 +5.0%

Over 3.5 28.9% 32.8% 3.05 -7.1%

BTTS 53.6% 58.8% 1.70 -8.9%

Home O1.5 37.2% 37.9% 2.64 -1.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 48.1% 2.08 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.6%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Urartu1.3

Alashkert1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC URARTU · PPG 1.66

ALASHKERT · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Urartu (H) 37.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +7.6%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.0%

Alashkert (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Urartu face Alashkert in Armenia - Premier League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Urartu a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Alashkert 36%, so FC Urartu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FC Urartu and 1.2 for Alashkert (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Urartu are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.44 for Alashkert. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 1-1.

FC Urartu vs Alashkert Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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