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Shirak vs FC Urartu Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Shirak

PPG 0.81 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FC Urartu

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-110.9%0-28.5%0-34.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.8%1-112.1%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.3%2-16.7%2-25.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 25.3% 3.95 +22.1%

Draw 24.7% 29.4% 3.40 -9.6%

Away win 44.4% 55.6% 1.80 -20.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 51.3% 1.95 +5.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.0% 3.45 +9.0%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 29.9% 3.35 +2.5%

Away O1.5 48.5% 51.8% 1.93 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.7%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1✓ 10.9%

#4 0–2 8.5%

#5 2–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shirak1.1

FC Urartu1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SHIRAK · PPG 0.81

FC URARTU · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shirak (H) 30.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +22.1%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.6%

FC Urartu (A) 44.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shirak face FC Urartu in Armenia - Premier League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shirak a 31% chance, the draw 25% and FC Urartu 44%, so FC Urartu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Shirak and 1.5 for FC Urartu (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shirak are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 1.56 for FC Urartu. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Shirak vs FC Urartu Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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