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Alashkert vs Van Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 6 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 16:00

Alashkert

PPG 2.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWD

UPCOMING

Van

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.8% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-12.8%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.2%1-16.9%1-21.9%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-18.3%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.0%3-16.8%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-013.0%4+-17.3%4+-22.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.8% 82.0% 1.22 -8.7%

Draw 16.9% 19.6% 5.10 -8.3%

Away win 8.3% 9.3% 10.75 -6.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 65.4% 1.53 -8.8%

Over 3.5 36.4% 42.6% 2.35 -14.5%

BTTS 48.0% 51.8% 1.93 -7.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 76.9% 1.30 -13.8%

Away O1.5 14.0% 20.0% 5.00 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.0%

H 75% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.8%

#2 3–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 1–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alashkert2.4

Van0.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALASHKERT · PPG 2.29

VAN · PPG 0.84

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.87 for Home, form 2.29 vs 0.84 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Alashkert (H) 74.8%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -8.7%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -8.3%

Van (A) 8.3%

ODDS 10.75 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alashkert face Van in Armenia - Premier League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alashkert a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Van 8%, so Alashkert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Alashkert and 0.6 for Van (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alashkert are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.84 for Van. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.4%.

Alashkert vs Van Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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