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FC Noah vs Gandzasar Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 6 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:00

FC Noah

PPG 2.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Gandzasar

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 76.5% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-12.1%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.6%1-15.9%1-22.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.1%2-18.2%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-17.7%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.5%4+-110.6%4+-23.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.5% 87.7% 1.14 -12.8%

Draw 15.9% 15.4% 6.50 +2.0%

Away win 7.7% 6.7% 15.00 +9.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 40.4% — — —

BTTS 48.0% — — —

Home O1.5 66.6% — — —

Away O1.5 18.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 76% / xG 2.8-0.7 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 3–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 1–1 5.9%

#5 4–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Noah2.8

Gandzasar0.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC NOAH · PPG 2.32

GANDZASAR · PPG 0.64

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.11 for Home, form 2.32 vs 0.64 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FC Noah (H) 76.5%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -12.8%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +2.0%

Gandzasar (A) 7.7%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Noah face Gandzasar in Armenia - Premier League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Noah a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Gandzasar 8%, so FC Noah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for FC Noah and 0.7 for Gandzasar (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Noah are averaging 2.32 points per game versus 0.64 for Gandzasar.

FC Noah vs Gandzasar Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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