Today / Armenia - Premier League / BKMA vs Ararat

BKMA vs Ararat Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:30

BKMA

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ararat

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-17.5%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-111.8%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.2%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.0%3-14.8%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 46.0% — — —

Away O1.5 21.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BKMA1.6

Ararat0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BKMA · PPG 1.11

ARARAT · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

BKMA (H) 53.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ararat (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

BKMA face Ararat in Armenia - Premier League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BKMA a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Ararat 22%, so BKMA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for BKMA and 0.8 for Ararat (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BKMA are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.71 for Ararat.

BKMA vs Ararat Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Armenia - Premier League Predictions