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Pyunik Yerevan vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 16:00

Pyunik Yerevan

PPG 2.23 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ararat-Armenia

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.3%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.9%1-111.7%1-26.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.4%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.2%3-15.0%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 45.5% 2.20 +2.3%

Draw 24.2% 31.3% 3.20 -13.5%

Away win 29.3% 33.9% 2.95 -8.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% 2.05 +10.3%

Over 3.5 31.7% 27.0% 3.70 +17.3%

BTTS 55.9% 55.6% 1.80 +0.6%

Home O1.5 47.8% 43.5% 2.30 +9.9%

Away O1.5 33.2% 35.7% 2.80 -7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pyunik Yerevan1.6

Ararat-Armenia1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PYUNIK YEREVAN · PPG 2.23

ARARAT-ARMENIA · PPG 2.10

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pyunik Yerevan (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +2.3%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.5%

Ararat-Armenia (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pyunik Yerevan face Ararat-Armenia in Armenia - Premier League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pyunik Yerevan a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Ararat-Armenia 29%, so Pyunik Yerevan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Pyunik Yerevan and 1.2 for Ararat-Armenia (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pyunik Yerevan are averaging 2.23 points per game versus 2.10 for Ararat-Armenia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Pyunik Yerevan vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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