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Gandzasar vs BKMA Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Gandzasar

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

BKMA

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-17.7%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.2%1-112.0%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.4%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-14.9%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 50.8% 1.97 -6.2%

Draw 24.9% 29.4% 3.40 -9.2%

Away win 27.5% 29.8% 3.36 -4.6%

Over 2.5 53.1% 52.4% 1.91 +1.4%

Over 3.5 31.3% 30.8% 3.25 +1.7%

BTTS 54.3% 57.1% 1.75 -5.0%

Home O1.5 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Away O1.5 32.6% 34.7% 2.88 -6.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.3%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gandzasar1.6

BKMA1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GANDZASAR · PPG 1.17

BKMA · PPG 0.85

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gandzasar (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -6.2%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.2%

BKMA (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.36 · IMPLIED 29.8% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gandzasar face BKMA in Armenia - Premier League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gandzasar a 48% chance, the draw 25% and BKMA 28%, so Gandzasar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Gandzasar and 1.1 for BKMA (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gandzasar are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.85 for BKMA. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 0-3.

Gandzasar vs BKMA Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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