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Alashkert vs BKMA Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 16:00

Alashkert

PPG 2.15 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

BKMA

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-15.3%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.8%1-19.5%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.2%2-18.6%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-15.2%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-13.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 78.1% 1.28 -18.1%

Draw 21.5% 21.1% 4.75 +1.3%

Away win 14.5% 11.1% 9.00 +18.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 58.8% 1.70 -15.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

Home O1.5 49.2% 71.4% 1.40 -31.1%

Away O1.5 16.7% 18.2% 5.50 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.7%

H 64% / xG 1.8-0.6 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.8%

#2 2–0 15.2%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 3–0✓ 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alashkert1.8

BKMA0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALASHKERT · PPG 2.15

BKMA · PPG 1.03

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alashkert (H) 64.0%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -18.1%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +1.3%

BKMA (A) 14.5%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alashkert face BKMA in Armenia - Premier League on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alashkert a 64% chance, the draw 22% and BKMA 14%, so Alashkert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Alashkert and 0.6 for BKMA (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alashkert are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 1.03 for BKMA. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +39.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Alashkert vs BKMA Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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