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FC Noah vs Ararat Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:00

FC Noah

PPG 2.23 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Ararat

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-12.7%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.3%1-16.9%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.0%2-18.9%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.3%3-17.7%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.4%4+-19.2%4+-23.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.0% 91.7% 1.09 -24.8%

Draw 16.2% 13.5% 7.40 +11.9%

Away win 14.8% 4.8% 21.00 +126.5%

Over 2.5 62.3% 72.5% 1.38 -14.0%

Over 3.5 39.3% 51.3% 1.95 -23.4%

BTTS 52.7% 40.0% 2.50 +31.8%

Home O1.5 65.8% 87.0% 1.15 -24.3%

Away O1.5 18.6% 11.9% 8.40 +33.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.7%

H 69% / xG 2.6-0.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 3–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–1 6.9%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Noah2.6

Ararat0.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FC NOAH · PPG 2.23

ARARAT · PPG 1.04

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.84 for Home, form 2.23 vs 1.04 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FC Noah (H) 69.0%

ODDS 1.09 · IMPLIED 91.7% EV -24.8%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +11.9%

Ararat (A) 14.8%

ODDS 21.00 · IMPLIED 4.8% EV +126.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Noah face Ararat in Armenia - Premier League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Noah a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Ararat 15%, so FC Noah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for FC Noah and 0.7 for Ararat (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Noah are averaging 2.23 points per game versus 1.04 for Ararat. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +136.8%. This match finished 4-0.

FC Noah vs Ararat Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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