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BKMA vs FC Noah Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:00

BKMA

PPG 0.95 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

FC Noah

PPG 2.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-112.4%0-211.4%0-37.0%0-4+4.9%1 1-05.7%1-110.6%1-29.8%1-36.0%1-4+4.2%2 2-02.5%2-14.5%2-24.2%2-32.6%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.7%3-11.3%3-21.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.1% 8.3% 12.00 +55.9%

Draw 23.3% 18.2% 5.50 +16.9%

Away win 60.6% 83.3% 1.20 -27.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 61.7% 1.62 -12.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 43.5% 2.30 -27.3%

BTTS 53.0% 43.5% 2.30 +21.9%

Home O1.5 30.6% 13.7% 7.30 +123.4%

Away O1.5 55.2% 78.1% 1.28 -29.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob53.0%

A 61% / xG 0.9-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.4%

#2 1–1 10.6%

#3 0–1✓ 12.4%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BKMA0.9

FC Noah1.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BKMA · PPG 0.95

FC NOAH · PPG 2.02

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.99 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

BKMA (H) 16.1%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +55.9%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +16.9%

FC Noah (A) 60.6%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

BKMA face FC Noah in Armenia - Premier League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BKMA a 16% chance, the draw 23% and FC Noah 61%, so FC Noah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for BKMA and 1.8 for FC Noah (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BKMA are averaging 0.95 points per game versus 2.02 for FC Noah. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +123.4%. This match finished 0-1.

BKMA vs FC Noah Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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