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Alashkert vs Gandzasar Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:00

Alashkert

PPG 2.19 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Gandzasar

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 64.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-13.9%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.6%1-18.5%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.9%3-16.7%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-16.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.2% 73.5% 1.36 -12.7%

Draw 20.5% 23.8% 4.20 -8.3%

Away win 15.3% 12.8% 7.80 +11.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 56.5% 1.77 +5.7%

Over 3.5 36.6% 33.9% 2.95 +8.0%

BTTS 51.7% 51.3% 1.95 +0.8%

Home O1.5 64.5% 66.7% 1.50 -3.3%

Away O1.5 17.9% 21.1% 4.75 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.7%

H 64% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 1–1 8.5%

#4 3–0✓ 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alashkert2.2

Gandzasar0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALASHKERT · PPG 2.19

GANDZASAR · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alashkert (H) 64.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -12.7%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.3%

Gandzasar (A) 15.3%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV +11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alashkert face Gandzasar in Armenia - Premier League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alashkert a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Gandzasar 15%, so Alashkert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Alashkert and 0.7 for Gandzasar (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alashkert are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 0.77 for Gandzasar. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Alashkert vs Gandzasar Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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