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Ararat vs Pyunik Yerevan Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:00

Ararat

PPG 0.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Pyunik Yerevan

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWW ·

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-112.2%0-210.8%0-36.4%0-4+4.2%1 1-06.2%1-111.0%1-29.8%1-35.8%1-4+3.8%2 2-02.8%2-15.0%2-24.4%2-32.6%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.8%3-11.5%3-21.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% 10.8% 9.25 +69.3%

Draw 22.5% 22.2% 4.50 +0.8%

Away win 54.2% 76.9% 1.30 -29.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 58.8% 1.70 -8.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 37.0% 2.70 -14.7%

BTTS 53.0% 50.0% 2.00 +6.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 19.0% 5.25 +60.7%

Away O1.5 48.5% 70.4% 1.42 -31.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob53.0%

A 54% / xG 0.9-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 0–2✓ 10.8%

#3 0–1 12.2%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ararat0.9

Pyunik Yerevan1.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARARAT · PPG 0.69

PYUNIK YEREVAN · PPG 1.53

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.87 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ararat (H) 23.3%

ODDS 9.25 · IMPLIED 10.8% EV +69.3%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +0.8%

Pyunik Yerevan (A) 54.2%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -29.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ararat face Pyunik Yerevan in Armenia - Premier League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ararat a 23% chance, the draw 23% and Pyunik Yerevan 54%, so Pyunik Yerevan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ararat and 1.8 for Pyunik Yerevan (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ararat are averaging 0.69 points per game versus 1.53 for Pyunik Yerevan. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +60.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Ararat vs Pyunik Yerevan Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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