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FC Noah vs Alashkert Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 16:00

FC Noah

PPG 2.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Alashkert

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.9%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.7%1-111.5%1-26.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.5%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.4%3-15.2%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 27.7% — — —

Over 2.5 55.6% — — —

Over 3.5 33.2% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 47.7% — — —

Away O1.5 35.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Noah1.7

Alashkert1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.6% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC NOAH · PPG 2.10

ALASHKERT · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Noah (H) 47.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alashkert (A) 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Noah face Alashkert in Armenia - Premier League on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Noah a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Alashkert 28%, so FC Noah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for FC Noah and 1.2 for Alashkert (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Noah are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.73 for Alashkert.

FC Noah vs Alashkert Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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