09:30
H
31.9%
D
21.9%
A
46.2%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 72.0% · BTTS 69.6%
Score
2–3
2–5
HitFootball predictions today · Tue 21 Jul
208 graded O2.5 59% BTTS 56% 1X2 47% Full record →
09:30
H
67.9%
D
22.6%
A
9.5%
— no odds —
Home
O2.5 39.6% · BTTS 28.6%
Score
2–0
1–0
Hit09:30
H
64.0%
D
21.3%
A
14.7%
— no odds —
Home
O2.5 60.4% · BTTS 48.4%
Score
3–0
0–1
Miss
10:30
H
22.9% -11.9%
D
32.2% +3.0%
A
44.9% -3.5%
No bet
O2.5 36.2% · BTTS 46.4%
Score
0–2
1–1
Skipped10:30
H
40.8% -20.4%
D
27.0% -3.3%
A
32.2% +17.5%
BTTS
O2.5 50.0% · BTTS 52.9%
Score
2–1
0–0
Miss10:30
H
31.6% -30.5%
D
25.1% -11.1%
A
43.3% +40.7%
BTTS
O2.5 53.8% · BTTS 55.4%
Score
1–2
1–2
Hit
13:00
H
64.8%
D
21.5%
A
13.7%
— no odds —
Home
O2.5 46.8% · BTTS 46.4%
Score
2–0
Pending
13:00
H
64.8%
D
20.9%
A
14.3%
— no odds —
Home
O2.5 53.8% · BTTS 48.4%
Score
3–0
Pending
15:00
H
13.0% -42.8%
D
17.5% -29.5%
A
69.5% +108.5%
Away
+108.5%
O2.5 56.1% · BTTS 46.4%
Score
0–3
Pending
15:00
H
32.9% -27.6%
D
31.9% -7.5%
A
35.2% +5.6%
No bet
O2.5 40.0% · BTTS 48.4%
Score
1–1
Pending
15:00
H
44.8% -12.6%
D
28.5% -8.7%
A
26.6% -4.1%
No bet
O2.5 46.8% · BTTS 48.4%
Score
2–0
Pending
15:00
H
56.0% -23.8%
D
23.9% -2.6%
A
20.1% +30.4%
Home
O2.5 50.0% · BTTS 48.4%
Score
3–0
Pending
15:00
H
16.9% -1.2%
D
16.7% -23.9%
A
66.4% -0.4%
Away O1.5
+13.0%
O2.5 67.0% · BTTS 52.3%
Score
1–3
Pending
16:00
H
46.3% -2.8%
D
26.6% -4.1%
A
27.1% -12.0%
BTTS
O2.5 50.1% · BTTS 52.5%
Score
2–1
Pending
16:00
H
45.0% +17.9%
D
24.0% -8.2%
A
31.0% -31.8%
O2.5
+0.5%
O2.5 62.8% · BTTS 62.5%
Score
3–1
Pending
17:00
H
55.6% +11.2%
D
21.1% -14.4%
A
23.2% -12.0%
Home O1.5
+30.4%
O2.5 69.7% · BTTS 64.3%
Score
4–1
Pending
18:00
H
37.1%
D
31.4%
A
31.5%
— no odds —
No bet
O2.5 43.1% · BTTS 48.4%
Score
1–1
Pending
21:30
H
45.4% +4.4%
D
31.1% -3.6%
A
23.5% -14.9%
No bet
O2.5 38.4% · BTTS 46.4%
Score
2–0
Pending
22:30
H
48.6% -2.8%
D
24.5% -10.8%
A
26.9% -1.1%
BTTS
+7.1%
O2.5 60.8% · BTTS 61.2%
Score
2–1
Pending
22:30
H
54.2% +14.9%
D
25.6% -10.8%
A
20.2% -17.0%
Home
+14.9%
O2.5 46.8% · BTTS 48.4%
Score
2–0
Pending
22:30
H
45.1% +3.7%
D
28.1% -8.6%
A
26.8% -7.7%
No bet
O2.5 46.8% · BTTS 48.4%
Score
2–0
Pending
23:00
H
45.9% -20.6%
D
26.7% +0.9%
A
27.3% +3.9%
BTTS
O2.5 47.4% · BTTS 49.6%
Score
2–0
Pending
How the model calls it
01 · Strength
Attack and defence ratings per team from recent form, weighted by opposition — the inputs behind expected goals.
02 · Poisson
Goal expectancies become a full scoreline matrix: win, draw, Over 2.5, BTTS and top correct scores from one distribution.
03 · Edge
Model probability vs live bookmaker odds. A positive gap is value, flagged on every outcome as +EV%. No edge, no bet.
Questions, answered straight
How accurate are these football predictions?
Every pick is graded automatically at full time and kept on the public record. The full history, including losing days, is on the Accuracy page.
What is a value bet?
A bet where the model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds. If the model says 49% and the odds imply 34%, that gap is the edge — shown as +EV% next to each outcome. Value bets can still lose; the point is being paid more than the risk is worth over hundreds of bets.
How does a Poisson model predict matches?
It estimates how many goals each team is expected to score from attack and defence strength, then computes the probability of every scoreline. Summing those scorelines gives win/draw/loss, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities from a single consistent model.
Are the predictions free?
Yes — every match, every league, every day.
Why does the model say "No bet" on some matches?
When no outcome clears the confidence threshold, the model passes. Skipping bad spots is part of how the hit rate stays honest — a tip site that picks every match is selling volume, not edge.