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Falkenbergs FF vs Helsingborg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 15 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 17:00

Falkenbergs FF

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Helsingborg

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 73.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+30.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.9%0-21.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-03.6%1-15.5%1-24.2%1-32.1%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.1%2-17.8%2-26.0%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.8%3-17.4%3-25.7%3-32.9%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-110.6%4+-28.1%4+-34.1%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 50.0% 2.00 +11.2%

Draw 21.1% 27.8% 3.60 -14.4%

Away win 23.2% 29.0% 3.45 -12.0%

Over 2.5 69.7% 61.7% 1.62 +12.9%

Over 3.5 49.4% 39.2% 2.55 +26.0%

BTTS 64.3% 66.7% 1.50 -3.5%

Home O1.5 73.7% 56.5% 1.77 +30.4%

Away O1.5 48.9% 40.8% 2.45 +19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.3%

H 56% / xG 2.8-1.5 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.8%

#2 3–1 7.4%

#3 1–1 5.5%

#4 2–2 6.0%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Falkenbergs FF2.8

Helsingborg1.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FALKENBERGS FF · PPG 2.00

HELSINGBORG · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=55.6%

Win probability 1X2

Falkenbergs FF (H) 55.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +11.2%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.4%

Helsingborg (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Falkenbergs FF face Helsingborg in Sweden - Superettan on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Falkenbergs FF a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Helsingborg 23%, so Falkenbergs FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Falkenbergs FF and 1.5 for Helsingborg (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Falkenbergs FF are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.17 for Helsingborg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +57.4%.

Falkenbergs FF vs Helsingborg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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