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Libertad vs Delfin SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 21 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 21:30

Libertad

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Delfin SC

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-111.5%0-23.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.1%1-112.5%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.4%2-16.8%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.8%3-12.4%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 43.5% 2.30 +4.4%

Draw 31.1% 32.3% 3.10 -3.6%

Away win 23.5% 31.3% 3.20 -14.9%

Over 2.5 38.4% 40.8% 2.45 -5.9%

Over 3.5 18.1% 21.1% 4.75 -8.4%

BTTS 46.4% 50.0% 2.00 -7.2%

Home O1.5 35.4% 38.2% 2.62 -7.2%

Away O1.5 20.5% 29.4% 3.40 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.4%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.6%

#2 1–0✓ 19.1%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 0–1 11.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Libertad1.1

Delfin SC0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LIBERTAD · PPG 1.56

DELFIN SC · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

46%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=45.4%

Win probability 1X2

Libertad (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +4.4%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.6%

Delfin SC (A) 23.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Libertad face Delfin SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Libertad a 45% chance, the draw 31% and Delfin SC 24%, so Libertad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Libertad and 0.7 for Delfin SC (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Libertad are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.60 for Delfin SC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Libertad vs Delfin SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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