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Pakhtakor vs Xorazm Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 13 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 15:00

Pakhtakor

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Xorazm

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Home 68% chance

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-15.8%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.8%1-110.4%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.0%3-15.6%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-13.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 73.5% 1.36 -23.8%

Draw 23.9% 25.0% 4.00 -2.6%

Away win 20.1% 13.3% 7.50 +30.4%

Over 2.5 50.0% 55.6% 1.80 -10.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 37.0% 2.70 -13.3%

BTTS 48.4% 52.4% 1.91 -7.6%

Home O1.5 53.9% 67.1% 1.49 -19.7%

Away O1.5 20.7% 19.4% 5.15 +4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.3%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1✓ 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pakhtakor1.8

Xorazm0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PAKHTAKOR · PPG 2.00

XORAZM · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

68%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=56.0%

Win probability 1X2

Pakhtakor (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -23.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.6%

Xorazm (A) 20.1%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +30.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pakhtakor face Xorazm in Uzbekistan - Super League on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pakhtakor a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Xorazm 20%, so Pakhtakor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Pakhtakor and 0.7 for Xorazm (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pakhtakor are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Xorazm. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Pakhtakor vs Xorazm Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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