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Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 19 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 10:30

Jeju United FC

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Gangwon FC

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.7%0-121.2%0-212.0%0-34.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.2%1-111.5%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-02.8%2-13.1%2-21.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.5%3-10.6%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 28.6% 3.50 -11.9%

Draw 32.2% 31.3% 3.20 +3.0%

Away win 44.9% 46.5% 2.15 -3.5%

Over 2.5 36.2% 42.6% 2.35 -14.9%

Over 3.5 17.9% 22.2% 4.50 -11.7%

BTTS 46.4% 50.0% 2.00 -7.2%

Home O1.5 33.3% 28.2% 3.55 +18.2%

Away O1.5 36.3% 41.7% 2.40 -12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob46.4%

A 45% / xG 0.5-1.1 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.7%

#2 0–1 21.2%

#3 1–1✓ 11.5%

#4 0–2 12.0%

#5 1–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeju United FC0.5

Gangwon FC1.1

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JEJU UNITED FC · PPG 1.20

GANGWON FC · PPG 1.67

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

46%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.20) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Jeju United FC (H) 22.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.9%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +3.0%

Gangwon FC (A) 44.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeju United FC face Gangwon FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeju United FC a 23% chance, the draw 32% and Gangwon FC 45%, so Gangwon FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Jeju United FC and 1.1 for Gangwon FC (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeju United FC are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.67 for Gangwon FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +18.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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