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Hegelmann II vs Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 16 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 16:00

Hegelmann II

PPG 0.86 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Žalgiris II

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-16.7%0-25.1%0-32.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.0%1-110.7%1-28.1%1-34.1%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.6%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.0%3-14.6%3-23.5%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.6%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 38.2% 2.62 +17.9%

Draw 24.3% 27.8% 3.60 -7.5%

Away win 30.7% 45.5% 2.20 -32.5%

Over 2.5 61.5% 62.5% 1.60 -1.6%

Over 3.5 40.1% 41.5% 2.41 -3.4%

BTTS 62.5% 67.1% 1.49 -6.9%

Home O1.5 52.9% 45.5% 2.20 +16.4%

Away O1.5 48.9% 54.1% 1.85 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann II1.6

Žalgiris II1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN II · PPG 0.86

ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 0.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.86), Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann II (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +17.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.5%

Žalgiris II (A) 30.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -32.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann II face Žalgiris II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann II a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Žalgiris II 31%, so Hegelmann II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hegelmann II and 1.5 for Žalgiris II (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann II are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.57 for Žalgiris II. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Hegelmann II vs Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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