Today / South Korea - K League 1 / Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United

Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 19 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 10:30

Ulsan Hyundai FC

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Incheon United

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.2%0-27.5%0-34.1%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.0%1-111.5%1-29.3%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.4%2-17.1%2-25.8%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.8%3-13.0%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 45.5% 2.20 -30.5%

Draw 25.1% 30.8% 3.25 -11.1%

Away win 43.3% 30.8% 3.25 +40.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 50.0% 2.00 +7.6%

Over 3.5 32.8% 28.6% 3.50 +14.8%

BTTS 55.4% 57.8% 1.73 -4.2%

Home O1.5 38.0% 45.5% 2.20 -16.4%

Away O1.5 48.9% 35.1% 2.85 +39.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.4%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2✓ 9.3%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulsan Hyundai FC1.2

Incheon United1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ULSAN HYUNDAI FC · PPG 1.44

INCHEON UNITED · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Ulsan Hyundai FC (H) 31.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -30.5%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.1%

Incheon United (A) 43.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +40.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulsan Hyundai FC face Incheon United in South Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Incheon United 43%, so Incheon United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.6 for Incheon United (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.50 for Incheon United. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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