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Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 19 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 10:30

Ulsan Hyundai FC

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Incheon United

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.2%0-27.5%0-34.1%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.0%1-111.5%1-29.3%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.4%2-17.1%2-25.8%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.8%3-13.0%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 45.5% 2.20 -30.5%

Draw 25.1% 30.8% 3.25 -11.1%

Away win 43.3% 30.8% 3.25 +40.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 50.0% 2.00 +7.6%

Over 3.5 32.8% 28.6% 3.50 +14.8%

BTTS 55.4% 57.8% 1.73 -4.2%

Home O1.5 38.0% 45.5% 2.20 -16.4%

Away O1.5 48.9% 35.1% 2.85 +39.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 60%

ROI -25.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.4%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulsan Hyundai FC1.2

Incheon United1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ULSAN HYUNDAI FC · PPG 1.44

INCHEON UNITED · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Ulsan Hyundai FC (H) 31.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -30.5%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.1%

Incheon United (A) 43.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +40.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulsan Hyundai FC face Incheon United in South Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Incheon United 43%, so Incheon United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.6 for Incheon United (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.50 for Incheon United. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.7%.

Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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