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Atletico-MG vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 19 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 22:30

Atletico-MG

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bahia

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.5%0-23.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.3%1-111.2%1-26.7%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.6%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.6%3-15.5%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 50.0% 2.00 -2.8%

Draw 24.5% 29.9% 3.35 -10.8%

Away win 26.9% 27.4% 3.65 -1.1%

Over 2.5 60.8% 51.3% 1.95 +18.6%

Over 3.5 37.5% 29.4% 3.40 +27.5%

BTTS 61.2% 57.1% 1.75 +7.1%

Home O1.5 53.9% 48.8% 2.05 +10.5%

Away O1.5 36.6% 33.3% 3.00 +9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.2%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico-MG1.7

Bahia1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO-MG · PPG 1.88

BAHIA · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.88), Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico-MG (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -2.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.8%

Bahia (A) 26.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico-MG face Bahia in Brazil - Serie A on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico-MG a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Bahia 27%, so Atletico-MG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atletico-MG and 1.2 for Bahia (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico-MG are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.62 for Bahia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Atletico-MG vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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